W dużej mierze sentyment rynkowy jest zdefiniowany przez mix informacji w postaci geopolityki, danych marko oraz globalnego sentymentu związanego z rynkiem długu. Rentowności 10 letnich obligacji amerykańskich znajdują się obecnie na poziomach z 2019 roku. Inwestorzy po ostatniej decyzji Rezerwy Federalnej w sprawie podniesienia głównej stopy procentowej o 25 punktów bazowych zdecydowali się na wyrzucenie części obligacji z swoich portfeli na poczet nowego, lepiej oprocentowanego kuponu. Ta ucieczka kapitału z rynku dłużnego musiała znaleźć (przynajmniej częściowo) nową lokatę. Jednym z miejsc tej migracji były indeksy oraz akcje, które w ciągu ostatniego tygodnia “trzymały” cenę. W związku z tym pojawia się pytanie, jak będzie wyglądał sentyment w najbliższym czasie? Czy obecna sytuacja jest jedynie ciszą przed burzą?
Brak przełomu męczy rynki
Już na początku wojny między Rosją i Ukrainą wskazywałam na element “zmęczenia” rynku, gdy konflikt ten przybierze nieco “biernej” formy. Na początku giełdy dyskontowały na bieżąco złe wydarzenia powodując ogromne przeceny na większości aktyw. Geopolityka wysunęła się na pierwszy plan pomimo pełnego wydarzeń kalendarza makroekonomicznego. W pewnym momencie można było odnieść wrażenie, że pomimo całego szeregu fatalnych wieści (braku przełomu w rozmowach i ciągłym prowadzeniu działań militarnych przez Rosję) giełdy zaczynały odbijać. Tutaj doszło do tego elementu zmęczenia jedną informacją, która pomimo, iż fizycznie postępowała (działania militarne były ciągle prowadzone) nie było żadnych newsów, które rzucałyby nowe światło na całą sytuację. Można powiedzieć, że tożsamą sytuację mamy dokładnie teraz.
Dlaczego nad rynkami nadal wisi ryzyko przeceny?
Po pierwsze, konflikt nadal trwa. Działania militarne dalej są prowadzone, a rozmowy między delegatami Ukrainy i Rosji wyglądają wyłącznie na danie sobie czasu na dozbrojenie. Ponadto dociera do nas coraz większa liczba informacji o potencjalny przyłączeniu się Białorusi do konfliktu. Coraz częściej mówi się także o możliwości użycia broni chemicznej/nuklearnej przez Putina. Część informacji można oczywiście traktować, jako plotki czy lakonicznie fakty natomiast, jakby na to nie patrzeć są nie są to pozytywne informacje dla rynku.
Po drugie polityka monetarna. Pierwszy raz od 2018 roku Rezerwa Federalna postanowiła podnieść stopy procentowe. Na posiedzeniu odbywającym się między 15-16 marca rozmawiano również o potencjalnej redukcji bilansu. Konferencja prezesa FED Powella rzuciła nieco więcej światła w tej kwestii i plan na częściową sprzedaż aktywów mamy poznać na najbliższym posiedzeniu. Teraz polityka monetarna USA (państwa, którego w walucie leży większość światowego długu) zmierza już nie do neutralizacji a ewidentnego zacieśniania. Taper przygotował dobre podłoże do zacieśnienia polityki monetarnej pod względem wykorzystania w tym procesie także bilansu.
Po trzecie sytuacja makroekonomiczna. Wiadomym jest, że jastrzebie komunikaty Rezerwy Federalnej i gotowość na kolejne podwyżki jest odpowiedzią na wciąż bijącą rekordy inflację. Częściową winą obecnie obarcza się konflikt między Rosją i Ukrainą oraz pędzące za nim ceny energii, które silnie wpływają na procesy inflacyjne. Prognozy wzrostu gospodarczego ulegają cały czas rewizjom w dół, co w kontekście wyższych stóp procentowych kreuje wizję spowolnienia gospodarczego, którego tak bardzo obawia się najsilniej dotknięte covidem gospodarki, które nie miały jeszcze okazji w pełni odzyskać sił ekonomicznych po wiośnie 2020.
Rynek długu uwolnił trochę gotówki
Z racji rosnących stóp procentowych na rentownościach obligacji widzimy olbrzymi rajd. Dzięki niemu w dużej mierze pary związane z JPY przeżywają dokładnie taką samą aprecjację, gdyż jen japoński jest ujemnie skorelowany z rentownościami amerykańskich obligacji.
Jakby na to nie patrzeć inwestorzy wręcz lawinowo w ostatnim czasie pozbywali się 10 letnich papierów dłużnych. Cześć kapitału z pewnością przmigorwała do nowego, wyżej (a zatem lepiej) oprocentowanego kuponu. Natomiast kolejna część znalazła swoją lokatę w rynku akcyjnym. Ostatni ruch na rentownościach w dużej mierze tłumaczy ostatnie zachowanie rynków akcyjnych i walutowych, które pomimo braku przełomu w konflikcie między Rosją a Ukrainą miały paliwo do wzrostów. Zatem czynnik rynku długu w dużej mierze będzie w ciągu najbliższych dni kierował giełdowym sentymentem.
SPRAWDŹ OFERTĘ SZKOLEŃ FINANSOWYCH FINMEX:
100 Responses
You’re in reality a good webmaster. The website loading speed is
incredible. It kind of feels that you are doing any distinctive trick.
Moreover, the contents are masterwork. you’ve
performed a magnificent job on this subject!
Similar here: najtańszy sklep and also here:
Sklep
Hello there! Do you know if they make any plugins to help
with Search Engine Optimization? I’m trying to get my
blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing
very good gains. If you know of any please share.
Cheers! You can read similar art here: Backlink Portfolio
Wow, incredible weblog layout! How long have you been running a
blog for? you make running a blog glance easy. The entire look of your site is wonderful, as smartly
as the content material! You can see similar
here dobry sklep
Wow, amazing weblog layout!
How lengthy have you been running a blog for? you make blogging glance easy.
The total glance of your website is magnificent, as neatly as the content!
I read similar here prev next and it’s was wrote by Zora91.
Wow, wonderful blog layout!
How lengthy have you been running a blog for? you make running a blog glance easy.
The total look of your web site is fantastic, as well as the content!
I read similar here prev next and that was wrote by Forest84.
Howdy! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with Search Engine Optimization? I’m trying to
get my site to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good results.
If you know of any please share. Thanks! You can read similar art here:
Choose your escape room
I will immediately grasp your rss feed as I can’t in finding your email subscription link or newsletter service. Do you’ve any? Please let me know so that I may subscribe. Thanks!
You’ve made some decent points there. I checked on the web for more information about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this web site.
Hello! I could have sworn I’ve been to this web site before but after going through many of the posts I realized it’s new to me. Nonetheless, I’m certainly delighted I stumbled upon it and I’ll be bookmarking it and checking back often.
we have collectibles at home that we display in our living room. they are quite nice,
I used to be able to find good info from your content.
It’s difficult to find knowledgeable people in this particular topic, however, you sound like you know what you’re talking about! Thanks
Hi there! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with Search Engine Optimization? I’m
trying to get my website to rank for some targeted keywords
but I’m not seeing very good results. If you know of any please share.
Kudos! You can read similar text here
You made some good points there. I checked on the web to learn more about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this web site.
very nice post, i undoubtedly enjoy this excellent website, continue it
Cheers, a great read – added to favourites so will head back for new content and to read other people’s comments. Cheers again.
Pretty insightful post. Never thought that it was this simple after all. I had spent a good deal of my time looking for someone to explain this subject clearly and you
May I simply just say what a comfort to uncover somebody that really understands what they’re discussing on the net. You definitely realize how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More and more people really need to check this out and understand this side of the story. I was surprised you aren’t more popular because you definitely have the gift.
Howdy! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with Search Engine Optimization? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good gains. If you know of any please share. Kudos!
This is a very good tip especially to those new to the blogosphere. Brief but very precise information… Thank you for sharing this one. A must read article.
After reading many of your blogposts I staleness say i launch this fact one to mostly be top notch. I soul a weblog also and require to repost a few shears of your articles on my own diary site. Should it be alright if I use this as eternal I own testimonial your web blog or create a inward unification to your article I procured the snipping from? If not I realise and could not do it without having your tolerance . I change accumulation scarred this article to sound and zynga calculate intended for remark. Anyway realize it either way!
healthy eating should be our top priority since there are many junk foods and foods with no nutritional value these days~
In this grand pattern of things you’ll get an A just for hard work. Exactly where you confused me personally was first on your specifics. As people say, the devil is in the details… And that could not be more accurate here. Having said that, permit me say to you precisely what did deliver the results. Your text is actually highly engaging and that is probably why I am making an effort to comment. I do not make it a regular habit of doing that. Second, although I can easily see the leaps in reason you come up with, I am not convinced of exactly how you seem to connect your details which help to make the conclusion. For now I will yield to your position however wish in the foreseeable future you link your facts much better.
You need to get involved in a tournament for just one of the best blogs over the internet. I’m going to suggest this great site!
This web site is actually a walk-through you discover the knowledge you desired about this and didn’t know who to question. Glimpse here, and you’ll certainly discover it.
I could not resist commenting. Well written!
I simply couldn’t go away your web site before suggesting that I actually loved the standard information an individual provide in your visitors? Is gonna be back frequently in order to check out new posts
definitely an interesting read. i usually dont comment. signed captain america
I was able to find good advice from your blog posts.
Doceniam skupienie się na zagrożeniach SEO i potrzebie ich usunięcia.
Doceniam nacisk na bezpieczeństwo i profesjonalizm w SEO.
To było bardzo oświecające. Na pewno skontaktuję się z profesjonalistą od SEO.
Wskazówki dotyczące bezpieczeństwa SEO są bezcenne. Dziękuję za ich udostępnienie!
Ten post był bardzo pouczający na temat procesu SEO. Dzięki!
Dzięki za jasne i zwięzłe informacje na temat SEO.
I can’t really help but admire your blog. your blog is so adorable and nice ,
Awesome post ! Cheers for, visiting my blog dude! I will email you again! I didnt know that.
so much wonderful information on here, : D.
This important put up appears to be redeem a majority of customers. How would you market it? That it provides a fantastic one of a kind style directly on factors. My partner and i getting a specific product realistic or just sizeable furnish information on is a vital process.
informative site. Very informative article. Keep up the good work.
Oh my goodness! an amazing article dude. Thank you However I am experiencing issue with ur rss . Don’t know why Unable to subscribe to it. Is there anyone getting identical rss problem? Anyone who knows kindly respond. thanks
I became honored to receive a call coming from a friend as soon as he discovered the important guidelines shared on the site. Studying your blog posting is a real excellent experience. Thanks again for considering readers like me, and I wish you the best of success for a professional in this area. nobel calling card
Your blog is one of a kind, i love the way you organize the topics.**-.~
Thanks for sharing superb informations. Your website is very cool. I am impressed by the details that you have on this site. It reveals how nicely you perceive this subject. Bookmarked this website page, will come back for more articles. You, my pal, ROCK! I found just the info I already searched everywhere and just couldn’t come across. What a great web-site.
whoah this weblog is great i really like reading your articles. Keep up the great paintings! You already know, a lot of people are searching around for this info, you could aid them greatly.
i like the role of Anthony Hopkins in the movie Silence of The Lambs. this guy is simply amazing;
I really appreciate this post. I’ve been looking all over for this! Thank God I found it on Bing. You’ve made my day! Thx again…
Wonderful line up. We will be linking to this wonderful article on our website. Maintain up the very good writing.
Whatever wouldnt share with have a very debate along on this. You just let them know a lot of things which come from nowhere that Im pretty sure Id have a relatively fair shot. Your blog is excellent visually, I am talking about people wont be bored. But individuals that cane easily see after dark videos as well as the layout will not be so impressed utilizing your generic knowing of this topic.
Hi, Neat post. There’s a problem with your web site in web explorer, would test this… IE nonetheless is the marketplace chief and a good section of other folks will leave out your excellent writing due to this problem.
Perhaps you should also a put a forum site on your blog to increase reader interaction.~.-.;
에볼루션 추천
It is appropriate time to make some plans for the future and it’s time to be happy. I have read this post and if I could I wish to suggest you few interesting things or tips. Perhaps you could write next articles referring to this article. I want to read even more things about it!
Your article challenges the status quo—in a good way!보증금 대출
This is a great resource for anyone interested in…대학생 대출
Oh my goodness! a tremendous article dude. Thanks Nevertheless I am experiencing concern with ur rss . Don’t know why Unable to subscribe to it. Is there anybody getting similar rss downside? Anybody who is aware of kindly respond. Thnkx
I’m glad someone is discussing this openly.프라그마틱 공식홈페이지
Your words have given me a lot to think about.검색엔진최적화 방법
I was recommended this website by means of my cousin. I’m no longer sure whether or not this post is written by means of him as no one else know such particular about my trouble. You are wonderful! Thank you!
i would love to use hydrogen fuel on my car, this fuel is really nonpolluting but is not yet very available”
Pleasant blog post. It appears that plenty of the stages are counting on the inventiveness element. “Bad mind, bad heart.” by Anacharsis Cloots..
assisted living is nice if you got some people and a home that cares very much to its occupants;;
After looking over a few of the blog articles on your blog, I honestly appreciate your technique of writing a blog. I saved as a favorite it to my bookmark site list and will be checking back soon. Please visit my web site as well and let me know how you feel.
Hi, I do believe this is a great web site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I’m going to come back once again since i have book marked it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be rich and continue to help other people.
An outstanding share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a colleague who had been conducting a little research on this. And he actually ordered me breakfast because I found it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending some time to discuss this subject here on your web site.
Very good article! We will be linking to this great article on our site. Keep up the good writing.
Saved as a favorite, I like your site.
I like it when folks get together and share thoughts. Great blog, continue the good work!
Next time I read a blog, I hope that it does not fail me just as much as this particular one. After all, I know it was my choice to read through, however I truly believed you’d have something interesting to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of crying about something that you can fix if you were not too busy looking for attention.
This is a topic that needs more attention—thank you.검색엔진최적화 배우기
This website certainly has all the info I wanted about this subject and didn’t know who to ask.
Your passion for this topic is evident.구글 백링크
Greetings! Very useful advice within this post! It’s the little changes which will make the most important changes. Thanks for sharing!
Good info. Lucky me I ran across your site by chance (stumbleupon). I have saved it for later!
I want to to thank you for this good read!! I absolutely loved every little bit of it. I’ve got you book-marked to check out new stuff you post…
This site was… how do you say it? Relevant!! Finally I have found something that helped me. Appreciate it!
Greetings, I think your site could be having browser compatibility issues. When I look at your site in Safari, it looks fine however when opening in Internet Explorer, it’s got some overlapping issues. I just wanted to provide you with a quick heads up! Aside from that, great site.
You’ve made some decent points there. I checked on the net to learn more about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this web site.
Right here is the right web site for anyone who wants to find out about this topic. You understand a whole lot its almost tough to argue with you (not that I personally would want to…HaHa). You certainly put a fresh spin on a subject that has been discussed for a long time. Wonderful stuff, just wonderful.
An impressive share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a colleague who was conducting a little homework on this. And he actually ordered me lunch because I stumbled upon it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending some time to discuss this subject here on your internet site.
Oh my goodness! Impressive article dude! Thank you so much, However I am going through difficulties with your RSS. I don’t know the reason why I can’t join it. Is there anybody else getting the same RSS problems? Anyone who knows the answer can you kindly respond? Thanks!!
I couldn’t refrain from commenting. Exceptionally well written!
Aw, this was an extremely good post. Spending some time and actual effort to generate a good article… but what can I say… I hesitate a lot and don’t seem to get anything done.
When I initially commented I seem to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get 4 emails with the exact same comment. There has to be a means you are able to remove me from that service? Many thanks.
I want to to thank you for this fantastic read!! I definitely loved every bit of it. I have got you bookmarked to check out new stuff you post…
Everything is very open with a very clear explanation of the issues. It was really informative. Your site is very helpful. Thank you for sharing.
I couldn’t refrain from commenting. Exceptionally well written!
Very good post! We are linking to this great content on our site. Keep up the great writing.
Spot on with this write-up, I actually believe that this site needs a great deal more attention. I’ll probably be returning to see more, thanks for the information!
You are so interesting! I do not think I’ve read through something like that before. So good to discover someone with some unique thoughts on this subject. Really.. thank you for starting this up. This site is one thing that’s needed on the web, someone with some originality.
You have made some really good points there. I looked on the net for additional information about the issue and found most people will go along with your views on this website.
May I just say what a comfort to find someone who genuinely knows what they are discussing on the net. You actually understand how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More people should read this and understand this side of your story. It’s surprising you aren’t more popular since you certainly possess the gift.
May I just say what a comfort to uncover someone that genuinely knows what they are talking about on the web. You definitely realize how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More and more people really need to read this and understand this side of the story. I can’t believe you aren’t more popular given that you definitely have the gift.
An interesting discussion is definitely worth comment. I believe that you need to publish more about this subject matter, it might not be a taboo matter but typically folks don’t discuss such issues. To the next! Cheers!
After I initially commented I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on each time a comment is added I receive four emails with the exact same comment. Perhaps there is an easy method you can remove me from that service? Appreciate it.
Pretty! This was an incredibly wonderful post. Many thanks for providing this information.
I must thank you for the efforts you’ve put in penning this blog. I really hope to see the same high-grade blog posts by you in the future as well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has inspired me to get my own blog now 😉
It’s difficult to find well-informed people for this topic, but you seem like you know what you’re talking about! Thanks
Way cool! Some very valid points! I appreciate you penning this write-up plus the rest of the site is really good.
Hello there! I simply want to give you a big thumbs up for the great information you have right here on this post. I will be returning to your web site for more soon.