Handlując na rynku Forex wiele rzeczy robimy automatycznie. Mamy swój ulubiony rodzaj wykresów, ulubiony szablon, własną strategię i ulubioną wielkość pozycji. Jako początkujący trader często wielkość lota ustalana jest “po omacku”, bo nie chcemy przecież wpisać ani za dużo, ale też nie za mało. Przecież gra nie warta jest świeczki przy za małej wielkości kontraktu. W takim razie, jaka powinna być jego odpowiednia wielkość? Ten temat chcę poruszyć w kontekście budowania prostej strategii zarządzania ryzykiem zanim jeszcze umieścimy zlecenie na rynku. Jedną z prostszych i ciekawszych metod na money management jest ta, którą opiszę poniżej, ponieważ jeszcze przed otwarciem jakiejkolwiek pozycji pozwala od razu zbudować scenariusz wyjścia z transakcji, ustawić odpowiedni poziom stop loss i take profit oraz efektywnie zarządzać otwartym zleceniem.
Zacznijmy od najprostszej rzeczy, czyli generatora sygnałów. Może być nim poziom ceny (bazowanie na wsparciach / oporach), przecięcie średnich czy poziom wykupienia / wyprzedania na wskaźniku RSI. Generator tak naprawdę nie ma w tym momencie większego znaczenia, gdyż dostarcza wyłącznie cenę wejścia w transakcję. Oczywiście, dobrze wybrane miejsce wspiera przy zarządzaniu ryzykiem (ograniczając np. wielkość stop loss’a), ale nie jest z poziomu money management najistotniejszym elementem. Pokazując Wam, w jaki sposób zbudować prosty system zarządzania ryzykiem oparty na maksymalnej stracie, będę bazować na strefach popytu / podaży opartych o knoty w kluczowych miejscach ruchu ceny.
Aby pokrótce wytłumaczyć nasz generator, będą nim (jak wyżej wspomniałam) strefy popytu / podaży. Wyznaczam je na interwale godzinowym zwykle w miejscach szczytów / dołków, które nie zostały jeszcze przetestowane przez cenę. Szerokość tych stref (czerwonych prostokątów) jest szerokością knotów. Dlaczego? Gdyż knoty świadczą o akumulacji zleceń sell / buy. Dodatkowo wykorzystuję tutaj miejsca wyłącznie takie, po których nastąpił impuls ceny (silny ruch w górę lub w dół), gdyż jest to dla mnie informacja, że kupujący / sprzedający, których zlecenia oczekujące zostały zakumulowane w cenie (strefie) oznaczonego knota, były na tyle silne, że pociągnęły cenę w konkretnym kierunku. Zatem oznaczając sobie taką strefę liczę na “pierwsze przereagowanie” rynku i nigdy nie korzystam z przereagowanej strefy (czyli takiej, której cena dotknęła i od niej odbiła). Dzięki temu handluję zawsze przy świeżych poziomach.
Znając nasz generator sygnałów, przejdźmy do kolejnej istotnej kwestii, czyli ile chcę zaryzykować na jedną pozycję. Chcąc być profesjonalnym traderem, który w sposób konsekwentny i wręcz biznesowy zarządza ryzykiem, trzeba być świadomym ile ryzykujemy, by zarobić kwotę X. Czy poszlibyście w interes, w którym ryzykujecie 100% swojego kapitału, oczekując 2% zwrotu? Oczywiście, że nie. Dlatego nie warto robić tego ze swoim kontem.
Zatem budując swój plan, gdzie znamy wyzwalacz (generator sygnału), kolejnym parametrem, który określam jest maksymalna ekspozycja na 1 trade. Najłatwiej określić ją w procentach. Mówi o tym, ile kapitału chcę zaryzykować (przy danym stop loss’ie, o którym powiem w dalszej części tekstu) tylko w jednym zleceniu. Osobiście nie używam parametrów większych niż przedział 0,25%-0,50%. Preferuję spokojny trading, który nie będzie budził mnie w środku nocy z obawą o stan konta. Parametry można ustawić oczywiście dowolnie. Osobiście dbam o to, by drawdown nie przekraczał 4%-5% mojego konta stąd też maksymalna ekspozycja na jaką sobie pozwalam wynosi właśnie 0,25%-0,50%.
Skoro znam dwa powyższe elementy, czas przenieść je na wykres i ustawić optymalną wielkość zlecenia. Jak widzisz na wykresie zamieszczonym powyżej, będziemy korzystać z konta 6 000 USD. Skorzystamy z maksymalnej ekspozycji na jedno zlecenie w postaci 0,30% całości konta. Mając te dwa parametry zmierzmy wielkość naszego stop lossa. Moją wielkością jest szerokość strefy.
Osobiście, by nie liczyć za każdym razem tych parametrów, stworzyłam sobie plik w excelu – prosty kalkulator, by wpisywać sobie wyłącznie wielkość stop loss’a. Taki kalkulator można oprzeć o wzór, który zaraz napiszę. Jak działa kalkulator, jak go stworzyć i jak z nim handlować znajdziecie w filmie poniżej
Wzór:
(kapitał x max ekspozycja na 1 trade) / (stop loss x wartość 1 pipsa*)
* wartość 1 pipsa przy 1 locie
Aby maksymalnie uprościć obliczenia, przyjmijmy, że 1 pips przy 1 locie na USD/CHF to 10 USD. Podstawiając zatem wszystkie dane do powyższego wzoru otrzymujemy:
(6000 USD x 0,3%) / (8 x 10) = 18/80 = 0,225
zaokrąglamy w dół (!) =>0,22
Interpretując sobie powyższe oznacza to, że chcąc zaryzykować 0,30% konta do zawarcia jednej transakcji, której ryzyko wynosi 8 pipsów (tam też ustawiamy stop loss) możemy umieścić transakcję wielkości 0,22 lota. Oczywiście take profit powinniśmy ustawić większy (co najmniej x 1,5). Ten wzór można wykorzystać do stworzenia prostego excela jak ten, którego kawałek udostępniamy poniżej.
Biorąc ponownie za punkt odniesienia opisaną przeze mnie wyżej strategię, nigdy nie handluję pomiędzy tymi strefami. Zlecenia ustawiam bardzo blisko nich i zwykle są to zlecenia oczekujące, które mają już ustawiony stop loss i take profit. Wystarczy kliknąć przy poziomie prawym przyciskiem myszy na wykresie, ustawić wcześniej w panelu do składania zleceń (w lewym górnym rogu) obliczoną przez nas wielkość pozycji i wybrać rodzaj zlecenia, który z automatu (biorąc pod uwagę obecną cenę) nam się podstawi.
Można wówczas kliknąć dwukrotnie na zlecenie oczekujące, które się pojawi i ustawić stop loss i take profit zgodnie z zachowaniem odpowiedniego stosunku zysku do ryzyka. Zwykle warto doliczyć do stop loss’a (w przypadku tej strategii) 2-3 pipsy więcej, w razie gdyby rynek wybił trochę powyżej strefy i został z powrotem do niej ściągnięty.
Budowanie planu zarządzania ryzykiem wcale nie musi być pełne skomplikowanych wzorów z greckimi literami. Możemy naprawdę w prosty sposób wychodząc z poziomu maksymalnej, pojedynczej straty na kapitale obliczyć wielkość pozycji i dopasować ją do konta i warunków rynkowych. Zarządzanie ryzykiem jest niezbędnym elementem dobrej strategii inwestycyjnej.
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