Handlując na rynku Forex wiele rzeczy robimy automatycznie. Mamy swój ulubiony rodzaj wykresów, ulubiony szablon, własną strategię i ulubioną wielkość pozycji. Jako początkujący trader często wielkość lota ustalana jest “po omacku”, bo nie chcemy przecież wpisać ani za dużo, ale też nie za mało. Przecież gra nie warta jest świeczki przy za małej wielkości kontraktu. W takim razie, jaka powinna być jego odpowiednia wielkość? Ten temat chcę poruszyć w kontekście budowania prostej strategii zarządzania ryzykiem zanim jeszcze umieścimy zlecenie na rynku. Jedną z prostszych i ciekawszych metod na money management jest ta, którą opiszę poniżej, ponieważ jeszcze przed otwarciem jakiejkolwiek pozycji pozwala od razu zbudować scenariusz wyjścia z transakcji, ustawić odpowiedni poziom stop loss i take profit oraz efektywnie zarządzać otwartym zleceniem.
Zacznijmy od najprostszej rzeczy, czyli generatora sygnałów. Może być nim poziom ceny (bazowanie na wsparciach / oporach), przecięcie średnich czy poziom wykupienia / wyprzedania na wskaźniku RSI. Generator tak naprawdę nie ma w tym momencie większego znaczenia, gdyż dostarcza wyłącznie cenę wejścia w transakcję. Oczywiście, dobrze wybrane miejsce wspiera przy zarządzaniu ryzykiem (ograniczając np. wielkość stop loss’a), ale nie jest z poziomu money management najistotniejszym elementem. Pokazując Wam, w jaki sposób zbudować prosty system zarządzania ryzykiem oparty na maksymalnej stracie, będę bazować na strefach popytu / podaży opartych o knoty w kluczowych miejscach ruchu ceny.
Aby pokrótce wytłumaczyć nasz generator, będą nim (jak wyżej wspomniałam) strefy popytu / podaży. Wyznaczam je na interwale godzinowym zwykle w miejscach szczytów / dołków, które nie zostały jeszcze przetestowane przez cenę. Szerokość tych stref (czerwonych prostokątów) jest szerokością knotów. Dlaczego? Gdyż knoty świadczą o akumulacji zleceń sell / buy. Dodatkowo wykorzystuję tutaj miejsca wyłącznie takie, po których nastąpił impuls ceny (silny ruch w górę lub w dół), gdyż jest to dla mnie informacja, że kupujący / sprzedający, których zlecenia oczekujące zostały zakumulowane w cenie (strefie) oznaczonego knota, były na tyle silne, że pociągnęły cenę w konkretnym kierunku. Zatem oznaczając sobie taką strefę liczę na “pierwsze przereagowanie” rynku i nigdy nie korzystam z przereagowanej strefy (czyli takiej, której cena dotknęła i od niej odbiła). Dzięki temu handluję zawsze przy świeżych poziomach.
Znając nasz generator sygnałów, przejdźmy do kolejnej istotnej kwestii, czyli ile chcę zaryzykować na jedną pozycję. Chcąc być profesjonalnym traderem, który w sposób konsekwentny i wręcz biznesowy zarządza ryzykiem, trzeba być świadomym ile ryzykujemy, by zarobić kwotę X. Czy poszlibyście w interes, w którym ryzykujecie 100% swojego kapitału, oczekując 2% zwrotu? Oczywiście, że nie. Dlatego nie warto robić tego ze swoim kontem.
Zatem budując swój plan, gdzie znamy wyzwalacz (generator sygnału), kolejnym parametrem, który określam jest maksymalna ekspozycja na 1 trade. Najłatwiej określić ją w procentach. Mówi o tym, ile kapitału chcę zaryzykować (przy danym stop loss’ie, o którym powiem w dalszej części tekstu) tylko w jednym zleceniu. Osobiście nie używam parametrów większych niż przedział 0,25%-0,50%. Preferuję spokojny trading, który nie będzie budził mnie w środku nocy z obawą o stan konta. Parametry można ustawić oczywiście dowolnie. Osobiście dbam o to, by drawdown nie przekraczał 4%-5% mojego konta stąd też maksymalna ekspozycja na jaką sobie pozwalam wynosi właśnie 0,25%-0,50%.
Skoro znam dwa powyższe elementy, czas przenieść je na wykres i ustawić optymalną wielkość zlecenia. Jak widzisz na wykresie zamieszczonym powyżej, będziemy korzystać z konta 6 000 USD. Skorzystamy z maksymalnej ekspozycji na jedno zlecenie w postaci 0,30% całości konta. Mając te dwa parametry zmierzmy wielkość naszego stop lossa. Moją wielkością jest szerokość strefy.
Osobiście, by nie liczyć za każdym razem tych parametrów, stworzyłam sobie plik w excelu – prosty kalkulator, by wpisywać sobie wyłącznie wielkość stop loss’a. Taki kalkulator można oprzeć o wzór, który zaraz napiszę. Jak działa kalkulator, jak go stworzyć i jak z nim handlować znajdziecie w filmie poniżej
Wzór:
(kapitał x max ekspozycja na 1 trade) / (stop loss x wartość 1 pipsa*)
* wartość 1 pipsa przy 1 locie
Aby maksymalnie uprościć obliczenia, przyjmijmy, że 1 pips przy 1 locie na USD/CHF to 10 USD. Podstawiając zatem wszystkie dane do powyższego wzoru otrzymujemy:
(6000 USD x 0,3%) / (8 x 10) = 18/80 = 0,225
zaokrąglamy w dół (!) =>0,22
Interpretując sobie powyższe oznacza to, że chcąc zaryzykować 0,30% konta do zawarcia jednej transakcji, której ryzyko wynosi 8 pipsów (tam też ustawiamy stop loss) możemy umieścić transakcję wielkości 0,22 lota. Oczywiście take profit powinniśmy ustawić większy (co najmniej x 1,5). Ten wzór można wykorzystać do stworzenia prostego excela jak ten, którego kawałek udostępniamy poniżej.
Biorąc ponownie za punkt odniesienia opisaną przeze mnie wyżej strategię, nigdy nie handluję pomiędzy tymi strefami. Zlecenia ustawiam bardzo blisko nich i zwykle są to zlecenia oczekujące, które mają już ustawiony stop loss i take profit. Wystarczy kliknąć przy poziomie prawym przyciskiem myszy na wykresie, ustawić wcześniej w panelu do składania zleceń (w lewym górnym rogu) obliczoną przez nas wielkość pozycji i wybrać rodzaj zlecenia, który z automatu (biorąc pod uwagę obecną cenę) nam się podstawi.
Można wówczas kliknąć dwukrotnie na zlecenie oczekujące, które się pojawi i ustawić stop loss i take profit zgodnie z zachowaniem odpowiedniego stosunku zysku do ryzyka. Zwykle warto doliczyć do stop loss’a (w przypadku tej strategii) 2-3 pipsy więcej, w razie gdyby rynek wybił trochę powyżej strefy i został z powrotem do niej ściągnięty.
Budowanie planu zarządzania ryzykiem wcale nie musi być pełne skomplikowanych wzorów z greckimi literami. Możemy naprawdę w prosty sposób wychodząc z poziomu maksymalnej, pojedynczej straty na kapitale obliczyć wielkość pozycji i dopasować ją do konta i warunków rynkowych. Zarządzanie ryzykiem jest niezbędnym elementem dobrej strategii inwestycyjnej.
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{Tôi đã rất hài lòng khám phá trang web này. Tôi muốn cảm ơn bạn {vì đã|dành thời gian cho|chỉ vì điều này|vì điều này|cho bài đọc tuyệt vời này!! Tôi chắc chắn thích từng một chút nó và tôi đã đánh dấu để xem điều mới trên trang web của bạn.|Tôi có thể chỉ nói rằng thật thoải mái để tìm thấy một người mà thực sự hiểu họ là gì đang nói về trực tuyến. Bạn chắc chắn hiểu cách đưa một rắc rối ra ánh sáng và làm cho nó trở nên quan trọng. Nhiều người hơn nữa cần phải kiểm tra điều này và hiểu khía cạnh này của. Thật ngạc nhiên bạn không nổi tiếng hơn vì bạn chắc chắn sở hữu món quà.|Rất hay bài viết. Tôi hoàn toàn đánh giá cao trang web này. Cảm ơn!|Thật khó tìm những người có hiểu biết sâu rộng về điều này, nhưng bạn có vẻ bạn biết mình đang nói gì! Cảm ơn|Bạn cần tham gia một cuộc thi dành cho một trang web trực tuyến hữu ích nhất. Tôi chắc chắn sẽ khuyến nghị trang web này!|Một hấp dẫn đáng giá bình luận. Tôi nghĩ rằng bạn nên viết thêm về chủ đề này, nó có thể không là một điều cấm kỵ vấn đề nhưng điển hình mọi người không thảo luận những chủ đề như vậy. Đến phần tiếp theo! Chúc mừng.|Xin chào! Tôi chỉ muốn cho bạn một rất to cho thông tin tuyệt vời bạn có ngay tại đây trên bài đăng này. Tôi đang quay lại trang web của bạn để biết thêm thông tin sớm nhất.|Khi tôi ban đầu bình luận tôi có vẻ như đã nhấp vào hộp kiểm -Thông báo cho tôi khi có bình luận mới- và từ bây giờ bất cứ khi nào có bình luận được thêm vào tôi nhận được 4 email có cùng nội dung. Có lẽ có một cách bạn có thể xóa tôi khỏi dịch vụ đó không? Chúc mừng.|Lần sau Tôi đọc một blog, Hy vọng rằng nó không làm tôi thất vọng nhiều như bài này. Ý tôi là, Tôi biết điều đó là sự lựa chọn của tôi để đọc, nhưng tôi thực sự tin bạn sẽ có điều gì đó thú vị để nói về. Tất cả những gì tôi nghe được là một loạt tiếng rên rỉ về điều gì đó mà bạn có thể sửa nếu bạn không quá bận tìm kiếm sự chú ý.|Đúng với bài viết này, tôi thành thật cảm thấy trang web này cần nhiều hơn nữa sự chú ý.
{Tôi đã cực kỳ hài lòng để tìm thấy trang web tuyệt vời này. Tôi muốn cảm ơn bạn {vì đã|dành thời gian cho|chỉ vì điều này|vì điều này|cho bài đọc tuyệt vời này!! Tôi chắc chắn thưởng thức từng một phần nó và tôi đã đánh dấu để xem những thứ mới trên trang web của bạn.|Tôi có thể chỉ nói rằng thật thoải mái để tìm thấy một cá nhân mà thực sự hiểu họ là gì đang nói về trực tuyến. Bạn chắc chắn nhận ra cách đưa một rắc rối ra ánh sáng và làm cho nó trở nên quan trọng. Nhiều người hơn nữa thực sự cần kiểm tra điều này và hiểu khía cạnh này câu chuyện của bạn. Tôi không thể tin bạn không nổi tiếng hơn vì bạn chắc chắn sở hữu món quà.|Rất tốt bài viết trên blog. Tôi hoàn toàn đánh giá cao trang web này. Tiếp tục viết!|Thật khó tìm những người có học thức về điều này, nhưng bạn có vẻ bạn biết mình đang nói gì! Cảm ơn|Bạn nên tham gia một cuộc thi dành cho một trang web trên mạng tuyệt vời nhất. Tôi chắc chắn sẽ khuyến nghị trang web này!|Một hấp dẫn đáng giá bình luận. Không còn nghi ngờ gì nữa rằng bạn nên xuất bản thêm về chủ đề này, nó có thể không là một điều cấm kỵ chủ đề nhưng thường xuyên mọi người không nói về chủ đề những điều này. Đến phần tiếp theo! Chúc mọi điều tốt đẹp nhất!|Xin chào! Tôi chỉ muốn đề nghị rất to cho thông tin tuyệt vời bạn có ở đây trên bài đăng này. Tôi sẽ là trở lại blog của bạn để biết thêm thông tin sớm nhất.|Sau khi tôi ban đầu để lại bình luận tôi có vẻ như đã nhấp hộp kiểm -Thông báo cho tôi khi có bình luận mới- và từ bây giờ bất cứ khi nào có bình luận được thêm vào tôi nhận được 4 email cùng chính xác một bình luận. Có lẽ có một phương pháp dễ dàng bạn có thể xóa tôi khỏi dịch vụ đó không? Cảm ơn bạn.|Lần sau Tôi đọc một blog, Tôi hy vọng rằng nó không thất bại nhiều như bài này. Rốt cuộc, Tôi biết điều đó là sự lựa chọn của tôi để đọc, nhưng tôi thực sự tin bạn sẽ có điều gì đó thú vị để nói. Tất cả những gì tôi nghe được là một loạt khóc lóc về điều gì đó mà bạn có thể sửa nếu bạn không quá bận tìm kiếm sự chú ý.|Đúng với bài viết này, tôi nghiêm túc tin rằng trang web này cần nhiều hơn nữa sự chú ý.
{Tôi đã hạnh phúc hơn cả vui khám phá trang này. Tôi muốn cảm ơn bạn {vì đã|dành thời gian cho|chỉ vì điều này|vì điều này|cho bài đọc tuyệt vời này!! Tôi chắc chắn đánh giá cao từng của nó và tôi đã đã đánh dấu trang để xem thông tin mới trên trang web của bạn.|Tôi có thể chỉ nói rằng thật thoải mái để khám phá một người mà thực sự hiểu họ là gì đang nói về trên internet. Bạn thực sự biết cách đưa một vấn đề ra ánh sáng và làm cho nó trở nên quan trọng. Nhiều người hơn nữa nên đọc điều này và hiểu khía cạnh này của. Thật ngạc nhiên bạn không nổi tiếng hơn cho rằng bạn chắc chắn nhất sở hữu món quà.|Xuất sắc bài viết. Tôi chắc chắn yêu thích trang web này. Cảm ơn!|Thật khó tìm những người có học thức cho điều này, nhưng bạn nghe có vẻ bạn biết mình đang nói gì! Cảm ơn|Bạn cần là một phần của một cuộc thi dành cho một trang web trên internet hữu ích nhất. Tôi sẽ Rất khuyến nghị blog này!|Một động lực chắc chắn đáng giá bình luận. Tôi nghĩ rằng bạn nên xuất bản thêm về chủ đề này, nó có thể không là một điều cấm kỵ chủ đề nhưng nói chung mọi người không nói về những chủ đề những điều này. Đến phần tiếp theo! Chúc mừng.|Chào buổi sáng! Tôi chỉ muốn cho bạn một rất to cho thông tin tuyệt vời bạn có ở đây trên bài đăng này. Tôi sẽ là trở lại trang web của bạn để biết thêm thông tin sớm nhất.|Sau khi tôi ban đầu để lại bình luận tôi có vẻ như đã nhấp hộp kiểm -Thông báo cho tôi khi có bình luận mới- và từ bây giờ bất cứ khi nào có bình luận được thêm vào tôi nhận được 4 email cùng chính xác một bình luận. Phải có một cách bạn có thể xóa tôi khỏi dịch vụ đó không? Cảm kích.|Lần sau nữa Tôi đọc một blog, Tôi hy vọng rằng nó không làm tôi thất vọng nhiều như bài này. Ý tôi là, Tôi biết điều đó là sự lựa chọn của tôi để đọc, tuy nhiên tôi thực sự nghĩ bạn sẽ có điều gì đó hữu ích để nói về. Tất cả những gì tôi nghe được là một loạt tiếng rên rỉ về điều gì đó mà bạn có thể sửa nếu bạn không quá bận tìm kiếm sự chú ý.|Đúng với bài viết này, tôi thực sự nghĩ trang web này cần nhiều hơn nữa sự chú ý.
{Tôi khá hài lòng để tìm thấy trang này. Tôi muốn cảm ơn bạn {vì đã|dành thời gian cho|chỉ vì điều này|vì điều này|cho bài đọc tuyệt vời này!! Tôi chắc chắn thích thú từng một chút nó và tôi đã đã lưu vào mục ưa thích để xem những thứ mới trên trang web của bạn.|Tôi có thể chỉ nói rằng thật nhẹ nhõm để tìm thấy một người thực sự hiểu họ là gì thảo luận trên internet. Bạn chắc chắn nhận ra cách đưa một vấn đề ra ánh sáng và làm cho nó trở nên quan trọng. Nhiều người hơn nữa cần kiểm tra điều này và hiểu khía cạnh này câu chuyện của bạn. Tôi đã ngạc nhiên rằng bạn không nổi tiếng hơn vì bạn chắc chắn sở hữu món quà.|Rất hay bài viết trên blog. Tôi chắc chắn đánh giá cao trang web này. Cảm ơn!|Thật gần như không thể tìm thấy những người hiểu biết cho điều này, nhưng bạn nghe có vẻ bạn biết mình đang nói gì! Cảm ơn|Bạn cần là một phần của một cuộc thi dành cho một blog trên mạng tốt nhất. Tôi sẽ Rất khuyến nghị blog này!|Một hấp dẫn chắc chắn đáng giá bình luận. Tôi tin rằng bạn nên viết thêm về vấn đề này, nó có thể không là một điều cấm kỵ vấn đề nhưng thường xuyên mọi người không thảo luận vấn đề những điều này. Đến phần tiếp theo! Chúc mọi điều tốt đẹp nhất!|Xin chào! Tôi chỉ muốn đề nghị rất to cho thông tin xuất sắc bạn có ở đây trên bài đăng này. Tôi sẽ là trở lại trang web của bạn để biết thêm thông tin sớm nhất.|Sau khi tôi ban đầu bình luận tôi có vẻ như đã nhấp hộp kiểm -Thông báo cho tôi khi có bình luận mới- và từ bây giờ mỗi lần được thêm vào tôi nhận được 4 email có cùng nội dung. Phải có một phương pháp dễ dàng bạn có thể xóa tôi khỏi dịch vụ đó không? Cảm ơn rất nhiều.|Lần sau nữa Tôi đọc một blog, Hy vọng rằng nó không thất bại nhiều như bài này. Rốt cuộc, Tôi biết điều đó là sự lựa chọn của tôi để đọc hết, tuy nhiên tôi thực sự tin có lẽ có điều gì đó hữu ích để nói. Tất cả những gì tôi nghe được là một loạt rên rỉ về điều gì đó mà bạn có thể sửa nếu bạn không quá bận tìm kiếm sự chú ý.|Đúng với bài viết này, tôi hoàn toàn cảm thấy trang web tuyệt vời này cần nhiều hơn nữa sự chú ý.
informed of any kind of updates. Fabulous work and much success in your business endeavors!
{Tôi đã háo hức khám phá trang web này. Tôi muốn cảm ơn bạn {vì đã|dành thời gian cho|chỉ vì điều này|vì điều này|cho bài đọc tuyệt vời này!! Tôi chắc chắn thích thú từng một chút nó và tôi cũng đã đánh dấu trang để xem thông tin mới trên blog của bạn.|Tôi có thể chỉ nói rằng thật thoải mái để khám phá một người mà thực sự hiểu họ là gì đang nói về trên internet. Bạn chắc chắn hiểu cách đưa một rắc rối ra ánh sáng và làm cho nó trở nên quan trọng. Nhiều người hơn nữa thực sự cần kiểm tra điều này và hiểu khía cạnh này câu chuyện của bạn. Tôi không thể tin bạn không nổi tiếng hơn cho rằng bạn chắc chắn có món quà.|Rất hay bài đăng. Tôi chắc chắn đánh giá cao trang web này. Tiếp tục viết!|Thật gần như không thể tìm thấy những người hiểu biết về điều này, nhưng bạn có vẻ bạn biết mình đang nói gì! Cảm ơn|Bạn nên là một phần của một cuộc thi dành cho một trang web trực tuyến tốt nhất. Tôi chắc chắn sẽ khuyến nghị trang web này!|Một cuộc thảo luận thú vị đáng giá bình luận. Tôi tin rằng bạn cần viết thêm về chủ đề này, nó có thể không là một điều cấm kỵ chủ đề nhưng thường xuyên mọi người không nói về chủ đề như vậy. Đến phần tiếp theo! Chúc mọi điều tốt đẹp nhất!|Chào buổi sáng! Tôi chỉ muốn đề nghị rất cho thông tin tuyệt vời bạn có ở đây trên bài đăng này. Tôi sẽ là trở lại trang web của bạn để biết thêm thông tin sớm nhất.|Sau khi tôi ban đầu để lại bình luận tôi có vẻ như đã nhấp hộp kiểm -Thông báo cho tôi khi có bình luận mới- và bây giờ mỗi lần được thêm vào tôi nhận được 4 email có cùng nội dung. Có một phương tiện bạn có thể xóa tôi khỏi dịch vụ đó không? Cảm ơn rất nhiều.|Lần sau Tôi đọc một blog, Tôi hy vọng rằng nó sẽ không thất bại nhiều như bài này. Rốt cuộc, Tôi biết điều đó là sự lựa chọn của tôi để đọc hết, nhưng tôi thực sự tin bạn sẽ có điều gì đó thú vị để nói về. Tất cả những gì tôi nghe được là một loạt rên rỉ về điều gì đó mà bạn có thể sửa nếu bạn không quá bận tìm kiếm sự chú ý.|Đúng với bài viết này, tôi thực sự tin trang web này cần nhiều hơn nữa sự chú ý.
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