W dużej mierze sentyment rynkowy jest zdefiniowany przez mix informacji w postaci geopolityki, danych marko oraz globalnego sentymentu związanego z rynkiem długu. Rentowności 10 letnich obligacji amerykańskich znajdują się obecnie na poziomach z 2019 roku. Inwestorzy po ostatniej decyzji Rezerwy Federalnej w sprawie podniesienia głównej stopy procentowej o 25 punktów bazowych zdecydowali się na wyrzucenie części obligacji z swoich portfeli na poczet nowego, lepiej oprocentowanego kuponu. Ta ucieczka kapitału z rynku dłużnego musiała znaleźć (przynajmniej częściowo) nową lokatę. Jednym z miejsc tej migracji były indeksy oraz akcje, które w ciągu ostatniego tygodnia “trzymały” cenę. W związku z tym pojawia się pytanie, jak będzie wyglądał sentyment w najbliższym czasie? Czy obecna sytuacja jest jedynie ciszą przed burzą?
Brak przełomu męczy rynki
Już na początku wojny między Rosją i Ukrainą wskazywałam na element “zmęczenia” rynku, gdy konflikt ten przybierze nieco “biernej” formy. Na początku giełdy dyskontowały na bieżąco złe wydarzenia powodując ogromne przeceny na większości aktyw. Geopolityka wysunęła się na pierwszy plan pomimo pełnego wydarzeń kalendarza makroekonomicznego. W pewnym momencie można było odnieść wrażenie, że pomimo całego szeregu fatalnych wieści (braku przełomu w rozmowach i ciągłym prowadzeniu działań militarnych przez Rosję) giełdy zaczynały odbijać. Tutaj doszło do tego elementu zmęczenia jedną informacją, która pomimo, iż fizycznie postępowała (działania militarne były ciągle prowadzone) nie było żadnych newsów, które rzucałyby nowe światło na całą sytuację. Można powiedzieć, że tożsamą sytuację mamy dokładnie teraz.
Dlaczego nad rynkami nadal wisi ryzyko przeceny?
Po pierwsze, konflikt nadal trwa. Działania militarne dalej są prowadzone, a rozmowy między delegatami Ukrainy i Rosji wyglądają wyłącznie na danie sobie czasu na dozbrojenie. Ponadto dociera do nas coraz większa liczba informacji o potencjalny przyłączeniu się Białorusi do konfliktu. Coraz częściej mówi się także o możliwości użycia broni chemicznej/nuklearnej przez Putina. Część informacji można oczywiście traktować, jako plotki czy lakonicznie fakty natomiast, jakby na to nie patrzeć są nie są to pozytywne informacje dla rynku.
Po drugie polityka monetarna. Pierwszy raz od 2018 roku Rezerwa Federalna postanowiła podnieść stopy procentowe. Na posiedzeniu odbywającym się między 15-16 marca rozmawiano również o potencjalnej redukcji bilansu. Konferencja prezesa FED Powella rzuciła nieco więcej światła w tej kwestii i plan na częściową sprzedaż aktywów mamy poznać na najbliższym posiedzeniu. Teraz polityka monetarna USA (państwa, którego w walucie leży większość światowego długu) zmierza już nie do neutralizacji a ewidentnego zacieśniania. Taper przygotował dobre podłoże do zacieśnienia polityki monetarnej pod względem wykorzystania w tym procesie także bilansu.
Po trzecie sytuacja makroekonomiczna. Wiadomym jest, że jastrzebie komunikaty Rezerwy Federalnej i gotowość na kolejne podwyżki jest odpowiedzią na wciąż bijącą rekordy inflację. Częściową winą obecnie obarcza się konflikt między Rosją i Ukrainą oraz pędzące za nim ceny energii, które silnie wpływają na procesy inflacyjne. Prognozy wzrostu gospodarczego ulegają cały czas rewizjom w dół, co w kontekście wyższych stóp procentowych kreuje wizję spowolnienia gospodarczego, którego tak bardzo obawia się najsilniej dotknięte covidem gospodarki, które nie miały jeszcze okazji w pełni odzyskać sił ekonomicznych po wiośnie 2020.
Rynek długu uwolnił trochę gotówki
Z racji rosnących stóp procentowych na rentownościach obligacji widzimy olbrzymi rajd. Dzięki niemu w dużej mierze pary związane z JPY przeżywają dokładnie taką samą aprecjację, gdyż jen japoński jest ujemnie skorelowany z rentownościami amerykańskich obligacji.
Jakby na to nie patrzeć inwestorzy wręcz lawinowo w ostatnim czasie pozbywali się 10 letnich papierów dłużnych. Cześć kapitału z pewnością przmigorwała do nowego, wyżej (a zatem lepiej) oprocentowanego kuponu. Natomiast kolejna część znalazła swoją lokatę w rynku akcyjnym. Ostatni ruch na rentownościach w dużej mierze tłumaczy ostatnie zachowanie rynków akcyjnych i walutowych, które pomimo braku przełomu w konflikcie między Rosją a Ukrainą miały paliwo do wzrostów. Zatem czynnik rynku długu w dużej mierze będzie w ciągu najbliższych dni kierował giełdowym sentymentem.
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