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Podwyżki w USA nieuniknione

Wczorajszy dzień należał do bardzo intensywnych na rynkach. Do czwartku giełdy przez brak konkretnych impulsów fundamentalnych, wykorzystywały sytuację do umacniania się. Patrząc jednak przez pryzmat rentowności i kontraktów na stopę procentową FED, ciężko było zrozumieć dlaczego nie widać po giełdach pozycjonowania się pod wysokie odczyty inflacyjne. Wczorajsza publikacja stopy inflacji i inflacji bazowej zaskoczyła wszystkich. Najśmielsze prognozy opowiadały się za poziomem ok. 7,3%. Tymczasem publikacja styczniowych danych przerosła znacząco te oczekiwania. Takiej inflacji Stany Zjednoczone nie widziały od 1982 r. Do tak dużego, 7,5% wyniku w największym stopniu przyczyniły się ceny paliw. W tym krótkim komentarzu omówię kilka aspektów, potencjalnych podwyżek stóp procentowych przez Rezerwę Federalną na marcowym posiedzeniu. 

Nowy target – 50 punktów bazowych

Na większości analiz, które publikujemy na kanale Finmex, przed odczytami inflacyjnymi i przed posiedzeniem FED sprawdzam często pozycjonowanie się rynku na target rate’ach. Narzędzie, które za chwilę pokażę, wycenia prawdopodobieństwo zmiany polityki monetarnej na kolejnych spotkaniach FED. Oblicza się je na podstawie kontraktów futures na stopę procentową FED (FF). Urozmaica (modeluje się je) o dodatkowe czynniki. Sumarycznie można więc ująć, że narzędzie CME oblicza prawdopodobieństwo na podstawie 30-dniowych kontraktów futures na fundusze federalne (FF), których ceny uwzględniają oczekiwania rynkowe dotyczące średnich dziennych poziomów efektywnej stopy funduszy federalnych (FFER) w poszczególnych miesiącach kontraktów terminowych. Dodatkowo pod uwagę brany jest FFER, który jest publikowany przez Bank Rezerwy Federalnej w Nowym Jorku. Każdego dnia i jest obliczany jako ważona wolumenem transakcji średnia stawek z dnia poprzedniego dla transakcji organizowanych przez głównych brokerów na rynku niezabezpieczonych pożyczek jednodniowych między instytucjami depozytowymi. Zatem dzięki tym wyliczeniom możemy codziennie sprawdzić prawdopodobieństwo podwyżki. 

Jeszcze wczoraj przed publikacją inflacji te kolumny moglibyśmy zamienić miejscami. Rynek wyceniał podwyżkę 25-50 punktów bazowych w 77%, i w 23% podwyżkę 50-75 punktów bazowych. Po wczorajszych danych inflacyjnych proporcje się odwróciły. Na ten moment szansa na podwyżkę co najmniej 50 punktów bazowych wzrosła do 87,3%. 

Bullard widzi 1% do lipca

Z wypowiedzi bankierów centralnych FED płyną różne podejścia do tematu podwyżek. Z jednej strony większość z nich jeszcze przed posiedzeniem w styczniu wskazała na konieczność podniesienia stóp procentowych, jednak samo posiedzenie mimo jastrzębiego wydźwięku nie dało żadnych konkretów. Następne spotkanie Rezerwy czeka na 15-16 marca. Banki i instytucje ratingowe prześcigają się w prognozach punktów i ilości podwyżek w tym roku. Można znaleźć i takie projekcje, które sugerują 7 podwyżek przeprowadzonych przez FED w tym roku. Dziś na Bloombergu wiele czasu poświęcono Bullardowi – jednemu z bankierów FED. Powiedział on, iż jego zdaniem do lipca interest rate Rezerwy powinien wynieść 1%. Daly natomiast jeszcze przed odczytami inflacyjnymi mówiła o tym, że w marcu powinna nastąpić pierwsza podwyżka, natomiast sam proces zacieśniania nie powinien być agresywny. Cóż, czego by z tych wypowiedzi nie wróżyć, szanse na podwyżki są w moim odczuciu bardzo duże, patrząc choćby na tak absurdalną rzecz, jaką jest najwyższa od ponad 40 lat inflacja i dalsze prowadzenie dodruku (co prawda w mniejszym tempie), który ma skończyć się wraz z początkiem marca. 

Rentowności – szklana kula podwyżek

Ostatnią kwestią, która istotnie wskazuje na bardzo duże prawdopodobieństwo podwyżki na marcowym posiedzeniu są rentowności 10-letnich obligacji skarbowych USA. Obecnie są już notowane powyżej 2%! Takie poziomy obserwowaliśmy w połowie 2019 roku. 

Rentowności mówią na ten moment jedno – inwestorzy pozbywają się obligacji, licząc, że nowa emisja będzie lepiej oprocentowana (poprzez podniesienie stóp procentowych). Rentowności szczególny impet przybrały na początku 2022 r., gdy inflacja mimo oczekiwań dot. jej ustabilizowania, wykazała kolejny wzrost. Inwestorzy działający na rynku obligacji praktycznie po kilku pod rząd większych odczytach obligacji zaczęli pozycjonować się pod podwyżki. 

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  84. {Tôi cực kỳ hài lòng khám phá trang này. Tôi muốn cảm ơn bạn {vì đã|dành thời gian cho|chỉ vì điều này|vì điều này|cho bài đọc tuyệt vời này!! Tôi chắc chắn thưởng thức từng một chút nó và tôi cũng đã đã đánh dấu trang để xem những thứ mới trong trang web của bạn.|Tôi có thể chỉ nói rằng thật thoải mái để khám phá một người thực sự hiểu họ là gì thảo luận trên mạng. Bạn chắc chắn nhận ra cách đưa một vấn đề ra ánh sáng và làm cho nó trở nên quan trọng. Nhiều người hơn nữa cần kiểm tra điều này và hiểu khía cạnh này câu chuyện của bạn. Tôi đã ngạc nhiên rằng bạn không nổi tiếng hơn vì bạn chắc chắn sở hữu món quà.|Xuất sắc bài viết trên blog. Tôi chắc chắn đánh giá cao trang web này. Tiếp tục với nó!|Thật gần như không thể tìm thấy những người có học thức về điều này, nhưng bạn nghe có vẻ bạn biết mình đang nói gì! Cảm ơn|Bạn nên tham gia một cuộc thi dành cho một blog trực tuyến tốt nhất. Tôi sẽ Rất khuyến nghị trang web này!|Một động lực chắc chắn đáng giá bình luận. Tôi nghĩ rằng bạn nên viết thêm về chủ đề này, nó có thể không là một điều cấm kỵ chủ đề nhưng nói chung mọi người không nói về những chủ đề những điều này. Đến phần tiếp theo! Chúc mọi điều tốt đẹp nhất.|Xin chào! Tôi chỉ muốn đề nghị rất cho thông tin xuất sắc bạn có ngay tại đây trên bài đăng này. Tôi sẽ là quay lại trang web của bạn để biết thêm thông tin sớm nhất.|Khi tôi ban đầu để lại bình luận tôi có vẻ như đã nhấp vào hộp kiểm -Thông báo cho tôi khi có bình luận mới- và từ bây giờ bất cứ khi nào có bình luận được thêm vào tôi nhận được bốn email có cùng nội dung. Có một phương pháp dễ dàng bạn có thể xóa tôi khỏi dịch vụ đó không? Cảm ơn rất nhiều.|Lần sau nữa Tôi đọc một blog, Tôi hy vọng rằng nó không thất bại nhiều như bài này. Rốt cuộc, Vâng, đó là sự lựa chọn của tôi để đọc, tuy nhiên tôi thực sự nghĩ bạn sẽ có điều gì đó hữu ích để nói về. Tất cả những gì tôi nghe được là một loạt tiếng rên rỉ về điều gì đó mà bạn có thể sửa nếu bạn không quá bận tìm kiếm sự chú ý.|Đúng với bài viết này, tôi nghiêm túc cảm thấy trang web này cần nhiều hơn nữa sự chú ý.

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  110. 7 limiting out of doors gatherings to 25 people, indoor gatherings to 10 people, and indoor dining capacity to 25 for restaurants, in addition to prohibiting indoor dining in bars, a space of explicit concern to well being officials.

  111. A significant criticism of Cuban medical internationalism is that the medical doctors concerned which can be despatched by Cuba are typically sent towards their will, and with little to no compensation for their companies-as opposed to medical international support from practically another country.

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  113. Since he by no means left Angel Island, he has often been tricked by Physician Robotnik but is stated in one sport manual to have turn into extra skeptical of him, possibly due to the multiple instances of getting fooled by Robotnik.

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  117. When Future Systems (the architectural apply of Jan Kaplický and Amanda Levete) asked Clarke to collaborate on The Glass Dune (1992), he proposed an inside ‘skin of art’ for his or her progressive boomerang-shaped constructing, which was never realised.

  118. Towards the end of the sequence he and Cheng Yanan arrange for his or her parents to fulfill and after the 12 months gap they marry one another making Solar Hao and Yanan brother and sister and their dad and mom giving delivery to their child half brother.

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  121. The NCPS is charged with advocating for improvements in schooling and consciousness ranges in minority communities, well being initiatives, and to help to enhance danger identification for diseases and social issues which can be detrimental to minority communities.

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  124. The balance and arrangements of pictorial scenes inside their formal background shows Warrington as a much more skilful designer than his trainer Willement, in whose home windows the overall arrangement has a reasonably arbitrary quality.

  125. In the Seven Lamps of Architecture (1849) and The Stones of Venice (1851-1853), he mentioned the ethical, social and religious implications of buildings, emphasising the desirability of an moral strategy to the follow of the arts.

  126. I don’t remember talking with the GP, but do recall being transferred to another room where three unusual individuals sat in excessive back chairs watching me as I paced the flooring.

  127. Within the 2003-04 season, he emerged as first-alternative goalkeeper, and within the 2004-05 season, he performed in almost all of Barcelona’s matches, serving to Barcelona to their first league title in six years.

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  133. Through the Medieval interval, from the Norman Conquest of England in 1066 until the 1530s, much stained glass was produced and put in in churches, monasteries and cathedrals.

  134. Many times, attendees don’t want to lug your precious advertising and marketing supplies all around the exhibit corridor and will leap at the chance (and typically request it themselves) that you ship the knowledge to them the following week.

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  136. He joined Marseille in 1992, and received both the French championship and the Champions League at the top of his first season in Marseille, conserving a clean sheet in a 1-zero victory over Milan in remaining of the latter competition.

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  138. Holiday’s illustration to the chapter The Banker’s Fate may comprise pictorial references to the etching The Image Breakers by Marcus Gheeraerts the Elder, to William Sidney Mount’s painting The Bone Player, and to a photograph by Benjamin Duchenne used for a drawing in Charles Darwin’s The Expression of Feelings in Man and Animals.

  139. Brine extraction consumes huge quantities of water, doubtlessly depleting native aquifers and impacting agriculture and drinking water supplies for nearby communities, which may result in considerable ecological stress.

  140. Even rustic Adirondack chairs, the colorful Native American blankets and rugs of the Southwest, garden furniture from throughout the At­lantic, and early nineteenth-century porcelain china have discovered a place in country model.

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  143. 32.) In the event you sort in, „what’s the reply to life, the universe, and every little thing?” (all decrease case) into the Google calculator, you may get the reply, „42” (the same answer to this query as discovered within the Hitchhiker’s Information to the Galaxy).

  144. 26 January – The government announced the extension of the extent 5 lockdown restrictions till 5 March, along with a number of latest measures together with a obligatory 14-day quarantine period for all people travelling into the nation with no negative COVID-19 test.

  145. Tracks 1 (towards Austerlitz) should successively cross beneath the Boulevard Périphérique, followed by the platforms for the connections to Auteuil and Murat before ascending to service the station Michel – Ange – Molitor.

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  151. In 2010, two IDF troopers were convicted of 'excess authority’ and 'conduct unbecoming’ for using a 9-year-outdated Palestinian little one as a human shield to open packages they suspected of being booby trapped through the Gaza Struggle.

  152. Since the Second Intifada, UNICEF (The United Nations Children’s Fund), Amnesty Worldwide, B’Tselem and people such as the British writer Derek Summerfield, have called for Israel to guard kids from violence in accordance with the Geneva conventions.

  153. Some recommend that it is not merely coincidence that the Zoroastrianism’s mannequin of eschatological monotheism and the Deuteronomic historians strictly monotheistic model obtain formative articulations in the course of the period after Persia overthrew Babylon.

  154. Going down on the banks of the Rhine with its stage under the historic John Frost Bridge, the festival offers a thoughts-expanding “bridge” of its own, affording visitors the opportunity to explore stunning natural surroundings, new ideas and progressive EDM music by artists like John Digweed, Hot Since 82, Black Coffee, Kölsch and Len Faki, all of whom were among the various stars showing at this year’s version of the festival in early June.

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