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Podwyżki w USA nieuniknione

Wczorajszy dzień należał do bardzo intensywnych na rynkach. Do czwartku giełdy przez brak konkretnych impulsów fundamentalnych, wykorzystywały sytuację do umacniania się. Patrząc jednak przez pryzmat rentowności i kontraktów na stopę procentową FED, ciężko było zrozumieć dlaczego nie widać po giełdach pozycjonowania się pod wysokie odczyty inflacyjne. Wczorajsza publikacja stopy inflacji i inflacji bazowej zaskoczyła wszystkich. Najśmielsze prognozy opowiadały się za poziomem ok. 7,3%. Tymczasem publikacja styczniowych danych przerosła znacząco te oczekiwania. Takiej inflacji Stany Zjednoczone nie widziały od 1982 r. Do tak dużego, 7,5% wyniku w największym stopniu przyczyniły się ceny paliw. W tym krótkim komentarzu omówię kilka aspektów, potencjalnych podwyżek stóp procentowych przez Rezerwę Federalną na marcowym posiedzeniu. 

Nowy target – 50 punktów bazowych

Na większości analiz, które publikujemy na kanale Finmex, przed odczytami inflacyjnymi i przed posiedzeniem FED sprawdzam często pozycjonowanie się rynku na target rate’ach. Narzędzie, które za chwilę pokażę, wycenia prawdopodobieństwo zmiany polityki monetarnej na kolejnych spotkaniach FED. Oblicza się je na podstawie kontraktów futures na stopę procentową FED (FF). Urozmaica (modeluje się je) o dodatkowe czynniki. Sumarycznie można więc ująć, że narzędzie CME oblicza prawdopodobieństwo na podstawie 30-dniowych kontraktów futures na fundusze federalne (FF), których ceny uwzględniają oczekiwania rynkowe dotyczące średnich dziennych poziomów efektywnej stopy funduszy federalnych (FFER) w poszczególnych miesiącach kontraktów terminowych. Dodatkowo pod uwagę brany jest FFER, który jest publikowany przez Bank Rezerwy Federalnej w Nowym Jorku. Każdego dnia i jest obliczany jako ważona wolumenem transakcji średnia stawek z dnia poprzedniego dla transakcji organizowanych przez głównych brokerów na rynku niezabezpieczonych pożyczek jednodniowych między instytucjami depozytowymi. Zatem dzięki tym wyliczeniom możemy codziennie sprawdzić prawdopodobieństwo podwyżki. 

Jeszcze wczoraj przed publikacją inflacji te kolumny moglibyśmy zamienić miejscami. Rynek wyceniał podwyżkę 25-50 punktów bazowych w 77%, i w 23% podwyżkę 50-75 punktów bazowych. Po wczorajszych danych inflacyjnych proporcje się odwróciły. Na ten moment szansa na podwyżkę co najmniej 50 punktów bazowych wzrosła do 87,3%. 

Bullard widzi 1% do lipca

Z wypowiedzi bankierów centralnych FED płyną różne podejścia do tematu podwyżek. Z jednej strony większość z nich jeszcze przed posiedzeniem w styczniu wskazała na konieczność podniesienia stóp procentowych, jednak samo posiedzenie mimo jastrzębiego wydźwięku nie dało żadnych konkretów. Następne spotkanie Rezerwy czeka na 15-16 marca. Banki i instytucje ratingowe prześcigają się w prognozach punktów i ilości podwyżek w tym roku. Można znaleźć i takie projekcje, które sugerują 7 podwyżek przeprowadzonych przez FED w tym roku. Dziś na Bloombergu wiele czasu poświęcono Bullardowi – jednemu z bankierów FED. Powiedział on, iż jego zdaniem do lipca interest rate Rezerwy powinien wynieść 1%. Daly natomiast jeszcze przed odczytami inflacyjnymi mówiła o tym, że w marcu powinna nastąpić pierwsza podwyżka, natomiast sam proces zacieśniania nie powinien być agresywny. Cóż, czego by z tych wypowiedzi nie wróżyć, szanse na podwyżki są w moim odczuciu bardzo duże, patrząc choćby na tak absurdalną rzecz, jaką jest najwyższa od ponad 40 lat inflacja i dalsze prowadzenie dodruku (co prawda w mniejszym tempie), który ma skończyć się wraz z początkiem marca. 

Rentowności – szklana kula podwyżek

Ostatnią kwestią, która istotnie wskazuje na bardzo duże prawdopodobieństwo podwyżki na marcowym posiedzeniu są rentowności 10-letnich obligacji skarbowych USA. Obecnie są już notowane powyżej 2%! Takie poziomy obserwowaliśmy w połowie 2019 roku. 

Rentowności mówią na ten moment jedno – inwestorzy pozbywają się obligacji, licząc, że nowa emisja będzie lepiej oprocentowana (poprzez podniesienie stóp procentowych). Rentowności szczególny impet przybrały na początku 2022 r., gdy inflacja mimo oczekiwań dot. jej ustabilizowania, wykazała kolejny wzrost. Inwestorzy działający na rynku obligacji praktycznie po kilku pod rząd większych odczytach obligacji zaczęli pozycjonować się pod podwyżki. 

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  84. {Tôi cực kỳ hài lòng khám phá trang này. Tôi muốn cảm ơn bạn {vì đã|dành thời gian cho|chỉ vì điều này|vì điều này|cho bài đọc tuyệt vời này!! Tôi chắc chắn thưởng thức từng một chút nó và tôi cũng đã đã đánh dấu trang để xem những thứ mới trong trang web của bạn.|Tôi có thể chỉ nói rằng thật thoải mái để khám phá một người thực sự hiểu họ là gì thảo luận trên mạng. Bạn chắc chắn nhận ra cách đưa một vấn đề ra ánh sáng và làm cho nó trở nên quan trọng. Nhiều người hơn nữa cần kiểm tra điều này và hiểu khía cạnh này câu chuyện của bạn. Tôi đã ngạc nhiên rằng bạn không nổi tiếng hơn vì bạn chắc chắn sở hữu món quà.|Xuất sắc bài viết trên blog. Tôi chắc chắn đánh giá cao trang web này. Tiếp tục với nó!|Thật gần như không thể tìm thấy những người có học thức về điều này, nhưng bạn nghe có vẻ bạn biết mình đang nói gì! Cảm ơn|Bạn nên tham gia một cuộc thi dành cho một blog trực tuyến tốt nhất. Tôi sẽ Rất khuyến nghị trang web này!|Một động lực chắc chắn đáng giá bình luận. Tôi nghĩ rằng bạn nên viết thêm về chủ đề này, nó có thể không là một điều cấm kỵ chủ đề nhưng nói chung mọi người không nói về những chủ đề những điều này. Đến phần tiếp theo! Chúc mọi điều tốt đẹp nhất.|Xin chào! Tôi chỉ muốn đề nghị rất cho thông tin xuất sắc bạn có ngay tại đây trên bài đăng này. Tôi sẽ là quay lại trang web của bạn để biết thêm thông tin sớm nhất.|Khi tôi ban đầu để lại bình luận tôi có vẻ như đã nhấp vào hộp kiểm -Thông báo cho tôi khi có bình luận mới- và từ bây giờ bất cứ khi nào có bình luận được thêm vào tôi nhận được bốn email có cùng nội dung. Có một phương pháp dễ dàng bạn có thể xóa tôi khỏi dịch vụ đó không? Cảm ơn rất nhiều.|Lần sau nữa Tôi đọc một blog, Tôi hy vọng rằng nó không thất bại nhiều như bài này. Rốt cuộc, Vâng, đó là sự lựa chọn của tôi để đọc, tuy nhiên tôi thực sự nghĩ bạn sẽ có điều gì đó hữu ích để nói về. Tất cả những gì tôi nghe được là một loạt tiếng rên rỉ về điều gì đó mà bạn có thể sửa nếu bạn không quá bận tìm kiếm sự chú ý.|Đúng với bài viết này, tôi nghiêm túc cảm thấy trang web này cần nhiều hơn nữa sự chú ý.

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  152. Since the Second Intifada, UNICEF (The United Nations Children’s Fund), Amnesty Worldwide, B’Tselem and people such as the British writer Derek Summerfield, have called for Israel to guard kids from violence in accordance with the Geneva conventions.

  153. Some recommend that it is not merely coincidence that the Zoroastrianism’s mannequin of eschatological monotheism and the Deuteronomic historians strictly monotheistic model obtain formative articulations in the course of the period after Persia overthrew Babylon.

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  165. Mrs. Grogan is survived by sons, Charles Grogan of Palestine, Tommy Grogan of Jasper and John Grogan of Newton; daughters, Linda Grogan of Palestine, Dale Corridor of Newton and Lois Tidwell of Beaumont; sisters, Reba Nelson of Jasper and Marie Fields of Cleveland; brother, Earl Watson of Jasper; 19 grandchildren and quite a few nice-grandchildren.

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  172. Mr. McDonald is survived by kids, Bettye Jean McDonald of Mansfield, Willie Frank McDonald, Shelia McDonald Bell, Charlotte McDonald Mims and Robert Q. McDonald Jr., all of Palestine; and 11 grandchildren.

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  180. The principle street by means of Flagstaff is Route 66/Santa Fe Avenue, which runs parallel to the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) Railway line east-west by way of town.

  181. Survivors embrace her husband, Harold Deane Higgins of Gillham; one son, Harold Ryan Higgins of Gillham; one daughter, Christa Rana Higgins of Gillham; 5 brothers, Junior Jewell, Gerald Jewell and Robert Jewell of Cove, Ark., Johnny Jewell of Holly Springs, Miss., and Walter Jewell of Laramie, Wyo.; two sisters, Marie Ashcraft and may Smith of Cove; and plenty of nieces and nephews.

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  199. Since the Second Intifada, UNICEF (The United Nations Children’s Fund), Amnesty Worldwide, B’Tselem and people such as the British writer Derek Summerfield, have called for Israel to guard kids from violence in accordance with the Geneva conventions.

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